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binancebreach.com

An independent record of the October 2026 Binance hack

All theories

Theory Open

Questions raised about Binance's coverage of the loss

After the theft, some analysts and online commenters asked whether Binance can cover the loss. CertiK's CEO estimated that frozen assets plus Binance's emergency fund could cover about 66% of the losses, leaving a potential $2.1 billion gap.

This is a theory, not an established fact. First seen . Updated .

What the evidence does and does not show

Binance says it set aside more than $6.34B and had covered about 95% of the impacted amount on 1 November. In the sources captured as of 2026-11-01, it has not published the addresses of the $5B it says it holds in matching tokens and has not said when it acquired them. CertiK and Nansen said they could not verify the funds Binance had beyond its emergency fund. Binance published a proof-of-reserves snapshot on 31 October. It says the full zero-knowledge proof will be ready by about 3 November. Until then the coverage claims rest on Binance's own statements. The CertiK estimate was made on 30 October, before the later coverage updates, and put the possible gap at about 1.3% of reported reserves. We found no source in the sources captured as of 2026-11-01 that says Binance is insolvent.

Evidence

Evidence for (5)

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that a Binance spokesperson declined to disclose wallet addresses, citing security reasons, and that Binance did not disclose when it acquired the assets.

The spokesperson declined to disclose wallet addresses, citing security reasons. Binance did not disclose when it acquired the assets.

Binance spokesperson, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Addresses and acquisition date not disclosed. (in the sources captured as of 2026-11-01)

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that approximately $3 billion in frozen assets and Binance's $1.17 billion emergency fund could cover about 66% of the reported losses, leaving a potential $2.1 billion gap.

that approximately $3 billion in frozen assets and Binance’s $1.17 billion emergency fund could cover about 66% of the reported losses, leaving a potential $2.1 billion gap.

Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Estimate of a potential $2.1 billion gap, made 30 October.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that Nansen said it could not verify what funds Binance had available beyond its roughly $1.16 billion emergency fund.

Blockchain analytics company Nansen told Cointelegraph that it could not verify what funds Binance had available beyond its roughly $1.16 billion emergency fund or where the money to cover the remaining losses would come from.

Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Could not verify funds beyond the emergency fund.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that CertiK said it needed more information from Binance to assess whether the claimed $5 billion in matching tokens could be independently verified on-chain.

CertiK told Cointelegraph that it needed more information from Binance to assess whether the claimed $5 billion in tokens matching those stolen could be independently verified on-chain.

CertiK, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Needed more information to verify the $5 billion.

Reported

The BBC reported that several experts warned customers not to regard Binance's promise to cover losses as legally binding.

Several experts have warned customers not to regard Binance's promise to cover losses as legally binding and said they may need to pursue litigation to recover them.

BBC News. Captured . Original

Note: Experts warned the promise may not be legally binding.

Evidence against (7)

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that the speaker said Binance's SpaceX holdings alone were worth more than $1 billion.

the company’s SpaceX holdings alone, linked to a $500 million investment in Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover, were worth more than $1 billion.

Changpeng Zhao, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Zhao said SpaceX holdings alone exceed $1 billion.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that the speaker said the exchange's revenue for the year was sufficient to cover the hack losses and that the company did not need to sell its stake in SpaceX.

that the exchange’s revenue for the year was sufficient to cover the hack losses and that the company did not need to sell its stake in SpaceX.

Yi He, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Yi He said the year's revenue is sufficient.

Reported

Cointelegraph quoted a Binance spokesperson as saying the $5 billion is held in the exact token assets required and is in Binance custody.

“The $5 billion is held in the exact token assets that are required. These assets are in Binance custody,” a Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph.

Binance spokesperson, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Binance spokesperson says the assets are in Binance custody.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported Binance's exchange reserves as $165 billion, including assets backing customer balances.

$165 billion in exchange reserves. Those reserves include assets backing customer balances.

Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Reserves cited at $165 billion.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that CertiK CEO Ronghui Gu said the estimated gap represented about 1.3% of Binance's reported $165 billion in exchange reserves.

Gu said the estimated gap represented about 1.3% of Binance’s reported $165 billion in exchange reserves.

Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: CertiK's CEO: the gap would be about 1.3% of the reserves figure.

Official

Binance said in Recovery Update #4 that it had now covered approximately 95% of the impacted amount, up from 90% in the prior update, with the outstanding 5% in less liquid tokens outside the top ten.

Binance has now covered approximately 95% of the impacted amount, up from 90% in our prior update. The outstanding 5% are tokens outside the top ten listed above, and are less liquid in the market and take longer time to source at the required scale.

Binance, Binance. Captured . Original

Note: Binance says about 95% covered on 1 November.

Official

Binance said in its Security Incident Update #2 that it had set aside more than $6.34B in company funds, with $5B held in the exact impacted token assets, which it said meant it had covered approximately 80% of the impacted amount.

We have already set aside more than $6.34B in company funds, with $5B held in the exact impacted token assets that were stolen, such as USDC, USDT, BTC, ETH, BNB, etc. This means that we have already covered approximately 80% of the impacted amount.

Binance, Binance. Captured . Original

Note: Binance says $5B is held in the exact tokens and that it set aside more than $6.34B.

Context (6)

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that Binance said it submits weekly reports on company funds to Abu Dhabi's Financial Services Regulatory Authority under a requirement that predated the hack.

The exchange also said it submits weekly reports on company funds to Abu Dhabi’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority under a requirement that predated the hack.

Binance, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Binance says it reports company funds weekly to Abu Dhabi's FSRA.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that Binance ranks as the largest exchange by reserves with $134 billion in total assets.

Binance ranks as the largest cryptocurrency exchange by reserves with $134 billion in total assets.

Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Reserve figures differ by source.

Reported

Cointelegraph reported that the speaker said Gulf, Binance's partner in Thailand, had offered financial support.

he said Gulf, Binance’s partner in Thailand, had offered financial support.

Changpeng Zhao, Cointelegraph. Captured . Original

Note: Zhao said a Thai partner offered financial support.

Official

Binance said in Recovery Update #3 that the full zero-knowledge proof takes approximately 40 to 50 hours to generate and was estimated to be ready by Tuesday 2026-11-03 UTC.

The full zero-knowledge proof takes approximately 40 to 50 hours to generate due to the computational workload, so users holding any of these ten tokens can independently verify that their assets are at a minimum 1:1 backed once the full proof is generated, estimated to be by Tuesday, 2026-11-03 (UTC).

Binance, Binance. Captured . Original

Note: Full proof of reserves still being generated; estimated by 3 November.

Reported

The BBC reported that crypto history watchers online were pointing out that Binance's message that customer funds will be covered resembles a message given by the FTX CEO before FTX collapsed in 2022.

But crypto history watchers have been pointing out online that this is exactly the kind of message that FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried gave before his crypto exchange collapsed in 2022, leading to huge losses for customers and the industry.

BBC News. Captured . Original

Note: Comparison made by online commentators, reported by the BBC.

Reported

The BBC reported that Binance said in 2024 that it had more than $160bn in assets under its custody.

The company said in 2024 that it had more than $160bn in assets under its custody.

BBC News. Captured . Original

Note: Binance's 2024 custody figure.